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Old 11-03-2009, 05:00 PM
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Default VA, NJ & NY 23

It's election day people, & the referendum on Obama's last 10 months is on. There has been a 20pnt swing from Democrats to conservatives in these three races since last year.
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:59 PM
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8 things: A poll watcher's guide to the Virginia election
1) INDEPENDENTS
As pundits try Wednesday to spin the results forward to what they might mean for 2010 contests, perhaps the biggest thing to watch will be the vote among political independents, a growing and influential share of the national electorate. In late polling, Republican Robert F. McDonnell had a large lead among these voters; a decisive margin here would echo widely.

2) THE OBAMA FACTOR
Another key to thinking about upcoming elections is how much of a role that views about President Obama will affect voters. In a Washington Post poll last week, 70 percent of Virginia voters said that Obama was not a factor in their choice for governor. The rest were divided about equally between saying they would vote to express support of or opposition to the president. Look for what network exit polls will show.

3) REGIONAL VOTE

Democrats have won recent statewide elections by securing about 60 percent of the vote in Northern Virginia. R. Creigh Deeds, a state senator from the rural west, was supposed to lift his party's chances "downstate," but the latest Post poll shows him trailing because of a big deficit outside Northern Virginia, even as he runs solidly in the Washington suburbs. If those patterns hold on Election Day, they will scuttle many of the assumptions strategists have made over the past decade.

4) VOTE MARGIN
Can McDonnell maintain his double-digit lead in the polls? Democrats won the last two gubernatorial elections by seven points (Gov. Timothy M. Kaine in 2005) and five (Mark Warner in 2001). Ten or more would mark a significant victory.

5) TURNOUT
The actual vote tally matters. Turnout in the last two contests was well below 50 percent; if it drops further, so too may the strength of Virginia as a predictor of what might happen elsewhere next year. Only two Virginia governors have ever received a million votes -- Kaine in 2005 and George Allen in 1993.

6) "SURGE VOTERS"
Election analysts will be closely tuned to another aspect of turnout: which groups of voters cast ballots. A year ago, voters younger than 30 made up 21 percent of the electorate, and African Americans were 20 percent, with both groups critical to Obama winning the state. In pre-election polls, these voters appear largely disengaged this time around. Can a late get-out-the-vote drive and Obama's appearance last week in Norfolk influence the make-up of voters?

7) A SWEEP?
here have been far fewer polls in the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, but Republican candidates appear to have the edge. Should Republicans -- or Democrats in a major upset -- win all three statewide contests, the victory would be particularly decisive and boost the party's prospects for implementing state policy.

8) THE EXIT POLL
Apart from the official vote tally, the best data source will be the exit poll conducted by Edison Research for The Post and other media organizations. In Virginia, exit pollsters will interview randomly selected voters as they leave 40 voting locations. Preliminary numbers from this poll might be available early Tuesday evening; the numbers become more reliable as they are meshed with actual vote returns. Solid results should be available between nine and 10 Tuesday night.
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Old 11-03-2009, 09:21 PM
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I think this is less to do with Obama and more to do with Corzine is one of the worst governers we have had in a very long time.

I don't like Christie because he is also against giving the people gun rights.
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Old 11-04-2009, 02:49 AM
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We did it! The GOP swept the VA executive branch:
  • Governor - Bob McDonnell
  • Lieutenant Governor - Bill Bolling
  • Attorney General - Ken Cuccinelli
Also, Chris Christie took NJ. Now we're just waiting to see if Doug Hoffman can come from behind & take NY district 23.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:53 AM
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No matter what, Obama is still wearing his favorite T-Shirt tonight

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Old 11-04-2009, 12:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JB Rattlesnake View Post
No matter what, Obama is still wearing his favorite T-Shirt tonight

Agreed. What I will enjoy for the next week or so is watching how the Democratic pundits/politicians try to spin this.
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Old 11-04-2009, 01:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VCURamFan View Post
Agreed. What I will enjoy for the next week or so is watching how the Democratic pundits/politicians try to spin this.
I think we are definitely seeing the effects of Obamamania starting to wear off, and if things don't get a lot better in the next year or so, we will see even more support slip for Obama. I just don't see any other candidates right now who are really going to be able to compete with him. It's gonna take a pretty smooth character to beat Obama, probably somebody who is already a celebrity for something else outside of politics, and NOT Ted Nugent.
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Old 11-04-2009, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JB Rattlesnake View Post
I think we are definitely seeing the effects of Obamamania starting to wear off, and if things don't get a lot better in the next year or so, we will see even more support slip for Obama. I just don't see any other candidates right now who are really going to be able to compete with him. It's gonna take a pretty smooth character to beat Obama, probably somebody who is already a celebrity for something else outside of politics, and NOT Ted Nugent.
Too bad Ahhnold was born in the USA like Obama was, or he could have run ...
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Old 11-04-2009, 02:20 PM
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They're already trying to spin NY 23 as a failing on the Republicans' part for being foolish enough to run 2 candidates. Considering the millions of dollars that both Owens & Scoojaouheoihf (sp?) spent blast Hoffman the Accountant out of the race, to only win by 3-4% is laughable.

Don't foget that even after she dropped out of the race (and still managed to pull 5% of the vote somehow) Socjaiusht (sp?) even campaigned for the Deomcrat Owens & he stilled barely won.

It's almost as crazy as Bloomberg forcing the City Council to repeal a long standing law so that he could run for a third term, spending $100mil of his own money on the campaign & only beating a nobody by 5%.

Yeah, the Conservative Tea-Party wackos are defeated!!
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Old 11-04-2009, 02:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rearnakedchoke View Post
Too bad Ahhnold was born in the USA like Obama was, or he could have run ...
It would have to be somebody much more low key than the Terminator, yet somebody who is not perceived as another dirty politician.

I think a celebrity like Arnold is a bit too over-exposed to really be a successful politician. The general population are always going to look at him and think of his movies. Not to mention, even blind people who have never actually "seen" his movies would automatically think of his movies just because of his crazy voice.
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