if I were you I would be more worried about the lock down from half guard, if this guy is well versed in the rubber guard, I have held purple belts in the lock down long enough to get a sweep, and my bjj is not amazing at all.
ts a bjj match, the likelihood of you totally avoiding his uard is slim, since hes likely as you said to jump guard, if its a Gi torny, hes will be inclined to pull guard using your gi, so if you are worried about his guard, why not train to escape??? go to the gym and start from guard , practise breaking it down, or passing techniques.
and since you think that he cant submit you from his guard, you should have no worries about getting into it.
personally I prefer fighting from my back, to start, working my guard and then sweeping but whats the point in avoiding something you feel it not a threat to beating you???