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#1
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http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-sa...092109134.html
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What's most worrisome is the news that North Korea has scrapped the treaty signed in 1953 to end the Korean War. Especially when you realize that we have over 40,000 American troops in South Korea who would have a very short life expectancy if North Korea carried out a full scale attack on South Korea. When I was over there in 2000, we jokingly referred to ourselves as the "speed bump" of South Korea. It was a flippant reference to the fact that 40,000 American troops won't do anything but slightly slow down the estimated 1,000,000+ North Korean troops.
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#2
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This posturing is no doubt coming from the recent change in leadership of North Korea. It is true that since that chap took charge they have once again begun work on long range intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Is Korea likely to attack the United States, absolutely not in a direct nuclear manner. I do not think that China would tollerate it, and I do not believe that it could be successful with the US Starwars programme in action. Will North Korea attack South Korea...that is the danger in this situation. Personally...if the North Koreans lack the Chinese support, I dont think they would dare. China is unusually linient to these small pockets of despotism in the south regions of Asia, they tollerate Mynmar, they tollerate North Korea...but it is a tolleration. China is like an elephant that could almost roll over in her sleep and squash these countries and their regiemes To hear China calling for sanctions is an indicator that we are probably safe in terms of North Korea. If North Korea does attack the South, it will be with a similar effect to Iran attacking Israel...the target is not the direct strike, but the hope that the retaliation will involve the United States and legitamate a justification in the eyes of the offender that they can then attack the US. Thats why they wouldnt attack Israel or South Korea with nuclear weapons...they will save the nuclear weapons for attacking the US when, they hope, the US responds on behalf of south korea and/or Israel. In the case of South Korea, I dont think we even need to worry about Missile attacks. If the North plans to wage war on the South it will be a full scale land invasion not a bombardment campaign. South Korea is isolated by the ocean. If the Americans or Japanese didnt get there in time, it would be a dunkirk situation where the southern koreans would be driven south right into the ocean. However...I have got to say, I do think that its foolish for the South Koreans to do a military display infront of the North Koreans, whilst not an act of war, it certainly is a bit distasteful to parade your military infront of a people who really destest you...if anything is going to piss them off unneedfully, it would be that. I dont know if the US has fortified South Korea enough to hold the peninsular, neither do I know how long/how close reinforcements might be. We dont know how quickly or how good the North Koreans actually are. They may have a lot of people...but, they dont really do anything but prance around...I'm not really thinking that they have combat expeirience. They are kinda untested recently.
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#3
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However, the North Korean military is not to be underestimated. The war with South Korea never actually ended, so every North Korean born within the last 60 years has grown up preparing for this war. In some ways, they are probably more well-trained than the US military. When an army has nothing to lose and everything to gain, then they are almost unstoppable. Of course, the South Korean army is no slouch either. Those guys train more intensely than the US soldiers and they take it much more seriously. Because if the fighting breaks out again, their families, their homes and everything that they hold dear will be in danger. If anything keeps the American troops over there from getting slaughtered within the first few days of a North Korean invasion, it will be the South Korean army. One example that I read about while I was over there: There was a hill that the South Korean army held during the war and the North Koreans poured everything they could into taking it. The North Koreans bombarded the hill with so much artillery that, over the course of 3 days, they lowered the elevation of the entire hill by 1500 feet. However, the South Koreans retained possession of the hill and never surrendered to the North. That's how tough the Korean military is.
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#4
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#5
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#6
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That's the story we were told by the South Korean tour guides. I wish I could remember the name of the actual hill so I could look it up to verify.
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#7
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Hopefully all of this will die down after the new set of sanctions are verified, if China and the US are both in favour, we have to put our trust in that I suspect. I'm not sure where the Russians lie, but they seem a bit too preoccupied with Syria and Iran at the moment, but they have hinted at the six party talks, so we have to assume they want diplomacy. We know where both Koreans lie...so that just leaves Japan. Anyone know how Japan feels about all this? The Emporar strikes me as a very noble person, I cant believe that he would side with the North.
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#8
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Besides with as much as Koreans generally hate the Japanese people, I'm pretty sure that Japan NEVER wants to see North Korea become a nuclear power.
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#9
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When the Obama Administration came to the table they aggreed to take the North Koreans off the evil list. Japan was apparently most disgusted by this and told President Obama that they believed that the North Koreans should stay on the Evil list until they explained what happened to their citizens The paper I read basically says that Japan doesnt want North Korea to have nuclear weapoons almost exclusively because of its reasonably close proximity to their homeland. Their main reason for being included in the six party talks is purely to find out what happened to those abducted Japanese I think your right that they will side against the North...but I also dont think they really give a toss what happens with the Korean peninsular so long as 1) they dont feel threatened as a nearby nation, 2) they find out what happened to their citizens
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#10
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kim the younger probably watched the remake of red dawn and thought he could actually have a chance ... i wouldn't worry about a strike on the US mainland, don't think NK is capable of it .. i do worry that the US economy couldn't handle another war .... so i think the UN needs to sanction them hard and ensure South Korea has the best protection possible ...
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