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Old 06-20-2009, 05:20 PM
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http://www.mmaweekly.com/absolutenm/...9004&zoneid=13

SparkNotes:
  • Sanchez/Guida: Diego will be bigger; Clay should look for a TD & GnP.
  • Johnson/Wilkes: DJ's better & James needs to look for opening & hope to catch D.
  • Pearson/Winner: See Johnson/Wilkes, but substitute "DJ" with "Andre" & "James" with "Ross".
  • Lytle/Burns: going to be really close, but Chris's boxing & overall expereince will give him the edge.
  • Stevenson/Diaz: Do or die for Joe, he'll need to keep the pressure on Diaz on the ground to keep him from throwing up subs.
Quote:
Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida

The original Ultimate Fighter winner Diego Sanchez faces off with Midwest wrestling standout Clay Guida. Both fighters have been racking up wins and a victory here could possibly give the winner a shot at the UFC lightweight title. These two always push the pace, so don’t be surprised that this turns out to be the fight of the night.

Sanchez will be the much bigger fighter in the fight and that will be a big factor as Guida’s game is to bully around his opponent with his wrestling ability. Guida’s best chance to win the fight is take Sanchez down and land vicious shots from top as Sanchez’s weakest part of his game is fighting off his back. On the other hand, Sanchez can win the fight on the feet by bullying Guida with combinations or taking the fight to the ground, where he can lock on a submission or rain down some punishment.

DaMarques Johnson vs. James Wilks

H.I.T. Squad welterweight DaMarques Johnson faces off with California based British fighter James Wilks in The Ultimate Fighter welterweight final. Johnson earned his spot in the final by winning a unanimous decision over Nick Osipczak. Wilks got into the final by finishing Frank Lester with strikes in the third round of their semifinal bout.

Johnson looks to be on a roll and that momentum will be a factor into the fight, while Wilks will be looking to pull off the upset. In almost every aspect of the fight, Johnson is the better fighter and it will show. Wilks' best chance to win the fight will be to catch Johnson making a mistake either on the feet or on the ground. If that doesn’t happen then expect Johnson to pick apart Wilks en route to a commanding victory.

Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner

In a battle of British lightweights, Sunderland native Ross Pearson takes on Team Roughhouse fighter Andre Winner in the lightweight final. Pearson earned his spot into the final by winning a unanimous decision over Jason Dent. Winner submitted Cameron Dollar with a triangle choke to make it.

These two were teammates, but now they will have to do battle in order to win the show. At this point in their careers, Winner is just simply the better fighter of the two. He is better on the feet and on the ground. Pearson’s best chance to win the fight is to land a big shot on the feet and hope that it’s enough to finish Winner. If that doesn’t happen, expect Winner to finish the fight either on the feet or on the ground with relative ease.

Chris Lytle vs. Kevin Burns

Crowd pleasing welterweight Chris Lytle takes on Midwest submission fighter Kevin Burns. Both fighters are coming off a loss and need a win to keep up in the crowded welterweight division. They both like to bang on the feet, so expect some fireworks as these two slug it out.

Lytle is the better striker of two with his immense boxing experience, but Burns has shown his willingness to trade blows. He might be a little gun shy though after getting knocked out in his last fight. Burns' best chance will be to take the fight to the ground and work from the top. He will need to be careful because if he makes one mistake then Lytle will pounce on him with a submission. It’s an evenly matched fight, but the deciding factor could be Lytle’s immense experience over Burns.

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

Ultimate Fighter 5 winner Nate Diaz faces off with Ultimate Fighter 2 winner Joe Stevenson. Both fighters are coming off losses and for Stevenson this is a do or die situation for him to stay in the UFC. These two will be fighting with urgency; so don’t expect them to play it safe.

Both are primarily ground fighters, but have very different styles. Diaz is a technical submission fighter, while Stevenson is a wrestling based fighter with a killer guillotine choke. If it goes to the ground, Stevenson will need to be in Diaz’s face and not give him any space to work submissions. On the feet, Diaz has the edge with his technical boxing and significant reach advantage. The key in the fight will be whether or not Stevenson can stay in tight quarters and be in Diaz’s face, if not then expect Diaz to finish the fig
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