Very interesting analysis. To me, I thought it was setup very similar to how GSP caught Matt in their second fight. He kept kicking lower and to the body and then when you think it is another body shot you go to the head.
If you remember Bisping/Hendo, the reason he got dropped was because he was moving towards Hendo's right hand. With Vitor being a southpaw he needed to be moving away from the power, which would have been the opposite this time.