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-   -   Fedor/Rogers In-Depth (http://www.matt-hughes.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3348)

VCURamFan 11-04-2009 01:36 PM

Fedor/Rogers In-Depth
 
From MMAWeekly.com (SparkNotes to follow):

Quote:

Top ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko makes his Strikeforce debut on Nov. 7 headlining against undefeated Brett Rogers at the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Illinois.
For Rogers itís an opportunity of a lifetime. A win over the highly regarded Emelianenko on CBS would skyrocket the hard-hitting Minnesotanís reputation and popularity.
For Emelianenko itís the chance to fight on network television in the United States and further solidify his legacy as ďThe Last Emperor.Ē
Can Rogers land the shot that ends Emelianenkoís seven year reign atop the heavyweight division? Will the Russian simply take Rogers down and submit him? Weíll know those answers on Nov. 7, but hereís a closer look at the match up.

STRIKING
The striking is not clear cut for either fighter. Nine of Rogersí ten wins are by technical knockout or knockout, and his one other victory came by way of submission due to strikes. If thereís one thing Rogers possesses, itís punching power. He will also enjoy a reach advantage.
Emelianenko also packs a punch, but the majority of his thirty victories were won by submission. Where Emelianenko has an edge in the striking department is experience. The 33-year old has competed against world class strikers, and nothing Rogers brings to the table standing will be out of the ordinary for the more seasoned Russian.

GRAPPLING
The grappling aspect of the match up clearly favors Emelianenko with his Sambo and Judo backgrounds and wealth of experience on the ground.
Rogersí ground game may be better than we know, but no one outside of his gym has seen it. If the fight hits the canvas, expect Rogers to immediately try to get back to his feet, and if he doesnít look for Emeliankenko to put on a grappling clinic.

CAGE CONTROL
Rogers may have the edge in this department due to being used to competing inside a cage with itís subtle differences from a ring, but it will be hard to control the action facing a more well-rounded opponent.
On paper, fighting inside a fence enclosed environment seems tailor made for Emelianenkoís ground and pound style. We just havenít seen him in a cage yet. His threat for a takedown and solid clinch game should be enough to dictate the pace.

CONDITIONING
Emelianenko has a proven track record for being able to go the distance. Heís competed in tournament formats having to fight twice in the same night. He was also accustomed to the ten minute first round system used by the Pride organization in Japan. His conditioning hasnít been a factor before and I wouldnít expect it to become an issue now.
Rogersí conditioning is somewhat unknown because he usually finishes his opponents in the first round. Heís only gone to the second round twice in his career, and hasnít had to put in a full seven minutes of work in a fight thus far, but that doesnít mean heís the less conditioned athlete.
Fedor gets the nod in conditioning because we have evidence that shows heís able to take bouts into the later rounds and not get fatigued. Rogers may be able to as well, but like his ground game, we just havenít seen it.

THE ďXĒ FACTOR
Pressure is not always a bad thing depending on how a person responds to it, and how Brett Rogers reacts to the bright lights and main stage stress could hamper or help him.
Fighting a legend who has a more well-rounded skill set and experience on his side could seem like a daunting task for Rogers, or it could have the opposite affect leaving the 28-year old heavyweight with a sense of nothing to lose.
This is the biggest fight of Brett Rogersí career. Heís fought on CBS and high profile fight cards before, but has not headlined one and certainly not gone up against someone like Emelianenko. Pressure could factor into the equation for Rogers.
On the flip side of the coin, Rogers isnít expected to win, so he may not feel any pressure at all heading into the cage at the Sears Centre on Nov. 7.

KEYS TO VICTORY
Rogers needs to keep the fight standing and not show Emelianenko too much respect. His best chance at victory is letting his powerful hands go, using his reach advantage to keep the smaller Emelianenko on the outside and look for the knockout.
If the fight finds itís way to the ground, Rogers has to avoid submissions and guard passes and get back to his feet as quickly as possible. In the clinch he needs to impose his size and strength on Fedor without falling victim to a throw.
Emelianenko has to be careful striking with Rogers, respect his punching power and not stand in front of him. Fedor can win a stand up fight with the younger Rogers but getting the fight to the canvas is the path of least resistance to successfully remaining the top heavyweight in the world.

VCURamFan 11-04-2009 01:50 PM

Summary:
  • Striking - Even
    • Rogers:
      • 9 (T)KO wins
      • Other win by Sub due to strikes
    • Fedor:
      • More experienced against world-class strikers
  • Grappling - Fedor
    • Rogers:
      • Unknown
    • Fedor:
      • Sambo/Judo background
  • Conditioning - Fedor
    • Rogers:
      • Unknown
      • Only been to 2nd rnd twice
    • Fedor:
      • Gone distance many times
      • Won tourneys
      • Used to PRIDE's 10min 1st rnd
  • Cage Control - Rogers (slight)
    • Rogers:
      • Fought in a cage before
    • Fedor:
      • Cage more conducive to GnP
  • "X" Factor - Fedor
    • Rogers:
      • Depends on reaction to stage
  • Keys to Victory
    • Rogers:
      • Stay on feet
      • Use reach
      • Must stand-up if it hits the ground
    • Fedor:
      • Respect Rogers' power
      • Ground easiest path to W
Fedor-3, Rogers-1, Even-1

Max 11-04-2009 03:37 PM

I think the best win Rogers could have would be a dominate dec. If ends it early with a KO people will just say he got lucky.

VCURamFan 11-04-2009 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max (Post 78311)
I think the best win Rogers could have would be a dominate dec. If ends it early with a KO people will just say he got lucky.

Yeah, but if it goes to the judges, everyone will just say he had the same judges as Bisping & Machida!:laugh:

VCURamFan 11-04-2009 03:44 PM

Sherdog's version:
Quote:

The Breakdown: More than six years into his reign as the T-1000 of the heavyweight class, Emelianenko faces a familiar challenge in Rogers -- a ginormous brawler blessed with the punching power needed to starch a cyborg emperor. However, putting fist to face appears to be the only threat Rogers poses to Emelianenko, who has a whole toolbox of skills thanks to his legendary international Sambo career, as well as the kind of ground-and-pound that can give the heartiest onlooker a migraine.

If anything works in Rogersí favor, it could be that Emelianenko seems to go along with whatever his opponent wants to do out of an almost reckless confidence that he can succeed in any situation. It has yet to cost him a fight, but it has gotten him in trouble before, and Rogers only needs one punch and one mistake to precede it to leave lots of bookies in tears.

Considering both fighters rely on wide looping punches, the openings will be there for both men to play shatter the skull. Of course, this assumes Emelianenko does not drag Rogers to the mat and dismantle him like a stack of Legos. Although no one has seen Rogersí ground game, it seems safe to assume that he will not do anything except tap out if Emelianenko pulls him into the deep end of the pool.

The X-Factor: Emelianenko has weaknesses, but his opponents always end up laid out before they get a chance to do anything except look overmatched. Rogers does have the ability to exploit Emelianenkoís mediocre chin, but that means putting himself right in the Russianís wheelhouse.

Rogers certainly will not be afraid to collapse the pocket, but no heavyweight can walk through Emelianenkoís punches. Taking a few of those shots will be the price of admission for Rogers.

atomdanger 11-04-2009 06:07 PM

STRIKING
Can't compare. Rogers is completely untested, but hits hard.
Fedor has proven striking, and has been in there with the best of the best.
Fedor has the edge.

GRAPPLING
Fedor... Come on, is this worth talking about?
Rogers ground coach is a JJ blue belt, Fedor is....
5 respectable Judo titles....
and... 15 Sambo titles... 5 of those being world championships.

CAGE CONTROL
Possibly up in the air.. Fedor in a cage.... who knows?

CONDITIONING
Fedor... Come on... Watch the Nog fights, or the CC fight.
Or see the guy train....
Rogers is a big boy, and I have a hard time thinking a guy with that much meat on him has anywhere near the tank as Fedor.


KEYS TO VICTORY
Rogers needs a miracle.
Fedor needs to be himself.

atomdanger 11-04-2009 06:10 PM

"Emelianenko has weaknesses"

I would love for somebody to point out what those are.

Crisco 11-04-2009 07:09 PM

I like how the pressure facing Fedor isn't even remotely mentioned.

The whole community knows hes as cold as an icebox lol

Spiritwalker 11-04-2009 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atomdanger (Post 78355)
STRIKING
Can't compare. Rogers is completely untested, but hits hard.
Fedor has proven striking, and has been in there with the best of the best.
Fedor has the edge.

GRAPPLING
Fedor... Come on, is this worth talking about?
Rogers ground coach is a JJ blue belt, Fedor is....
5 respectable Judo titles....
and... 15 Sambo titles... 5 of those being world championships.

CAGE CONTROL
Possibly up in the air.. Fedor in a cage.... who knows?

CONDITIONING
Fedor... Come on... Watch the Nog fights, or the CC fight.
Or see the guy train....
Rogers is a big boy, and I have a hard time thinking a guy with that much meat on him has anywhere near the tank as Fedor.


KEYS TO VICTORY
Rogers needs a miracle.
Fedor needs to be himself.


Out of all the posts I have seen of yours, all the disagreements we have had..and agreements..

I can't think of any better way to have put the way this fight will go.

bj44 11-04-2009 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atomdanger (Post 78356)
"Emelianenko has weaknesses"

I would love for somebody to point out what those are.

gets cut easily


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